May 3, 2023
Ag Economy
Dairy Industry Snapshot
Avg. Price per Cwt. |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 F |
Boston Blend Price1 |
17.10 |
17.84 |
24.96 |
19.98 |
Avg. WNY Blend2 |
16.00 |
16.85 |
23.92 |
20.62 |
USDA All-Milk Price3 |
18.24 |
18.53 |
25.56 |
20.45 |
F=forecast. Note that normally the Boston Blend is higher than the WNY blend, but the forecasts have diverged, with Agri-Mark being more bearish than Upstate Niagara recently.
- February U.S. milk production increased 1.0% from February 2022. The national dairy herd increased, as did productivity per cow.
- On a state-by-state basis, in February, there were Y-O-Y increases in production in some major producing states, including, Idaho (3.4%), Michigan (3.1%), Texas (5.5%) and Wisconsin (0.3%). Notably, California (-0.9%), and New Mexico (-4.2%) showed declines. In the Northeast, New York had an increase of 2.9% Pennsylvania (-0.9%) and Vermont (-1.0%) showed decreases.4
- Milk prices have declined considerably from their highs in 2022. Boston Blend price averaged $19.70 in March, down substantially from the peak of $26.36 in July 2022. Prices are expected to range from $19-21 for the rest of 2023, and average $19.98 for the year.
- Input costs have risen, tightening margins for dairy producers. Labor, feed and other costs have risen significantly over the last 2 years.
1 Agri-Mark Price Forecast
2 Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
3 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)
4 USDA NASS Milk Production Report
Tags: dairy
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