Dairy Industry Snapshot

Special Note – Farm Credit East continues to closely monitor the latest developments on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Dairy Cattle:

• HPAI has been confirmed in dairy cattle in multiple US states over the last year, however cases have only been confirmed in California, Idaho and Nevada within the last 30 days as of April 14, 2025. There are, as of publication, no known cases in the Northeast.
• While wild migratory birds are believed to be the initial source of infection in Texas, subsequent infections now appear to be linked to cow-to-cow spread, movement of infected cattle and indirect transmission due to human and equipment vectors.

Human Infection:

• Human infection has been limited, however, numerous human infections and one fatality have been reported in the United States, mainly among farm workers with close contact with infected animals.
• Farmworkers and service providers should exercise caution among sick or dead birds and infected animals. This includes wearing PPE and disinfecting following exposure.

Preventing the Spread:

• Farmers should exercise increased biosecurity protocols, including any farm visitors or service providers. This may include using disposable booties, gloves, and possibly additional PPE depending on level of contact with animals.

Industry Impact:

• USDA is encouraging producers and veterinarians to minimize dairy cattle movement. Unlike in poultry flocks where HPAI is fatal, among the dairies whose herds are exhibiting symptoms, the affected animals have recovered with little associated mortality reported.
• USDA has announced a national milk testing strategy requiring that milk samples be collected for testing and reporting of HPAI positives nationwide, and 45 states have signed up for the program.

Food System Impact:

• Because most milk and dairy products are pasteurized before entering the market, there is no concern about the safety of the commercial milk supply, or that this circumstance poses a risk to consumer health. Testing has shown that the H5N1 virus is easily killed via commercial pasteurization.
• There have been recalls of some raw (unpasteurized) milk, and the FDA advises against its consumption. 

Market Overview

• The national milk cow herd came in slightly higher larger than last year’s February numbers. The national milk cow herd was at 9.405 million head, above the February 2024 figure of 9.343 million head. Milk per cow was down fairly significantly from the prior year, and overall milk production was down -2.5% from February 2024.
• New York was flat in terms of cow numbers from this time last year (at 630,000 head), and production per cow was down, resulting in a decrease in milk production of -2.0%. Nationally, most states showed decreases. Idaho (+4.7%) and Texas (+2.4%) showed gains, while California (-7.1%), New Mexico (-3.9%), New York (-2.0%), Pennsylvania (-2.5%), Vermont (-4.0%), and Wisconsin (-3.6%) showed declines.
• Feed and fuel costs have declined over the last year, but other input costs have risen. Meanwhile, milk prices have started to decline. Income-over-feed cost calculations, such as the DMC margin, are projected to range from $13.85-9.29/cwt. in 2025, with the low point anticipated in June.

¹ Agri-Mark Price Forecast
² Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
³ USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)