Dairy Industry Snapshot

 F=forecast. Note that normally the Boston Blend is higher than the WNY blend, but the forecasts have diverged, with Agri-Mark being more bearish than Upstate Niagara recently.

• February U.S. milk production increased 1.0% from February 2022. The national dairy herd increased, as did productivity per cow. 
• On a state-by-state basis, in February, there were Y-O-Y increases in production in some major producing states, including, Idaho (3.4%), Michigan (3.1%), Texas (5.5%) and Wisconsin (0.3%). Notably, California (-0.9%), and New Mexico (-4.2%) showed declines. In the Northeast, New York had an increase of 2.9% Pennsylvania (-0.9%) and Vermont (-1.0%) showed decreases.⁴   
• Milk prices have declined considerably from their highs in 2022. Boston Blend price averaged $19.70 in March, down substantially from the peak of $26.36 in July 2022. Prices are expected to range from $19-21 for the rest of 2023, and average $19.98 for the year. 
• Input costs have risen, tightening margins for dairy producers. Labor, feed and other costs have risen significantly over the last 2 years.
  

¹  Agri-Mark Price Forecast
² Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
³ USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)
⁴ USDA NASS Milk Production Report