May 3, 2023

Ag Economy

Dairy Industry Snapshot

Avg. Price per Cwt.

2020

2021

2022

2023 F

Boston Blend Price1

17.10

17.84

24.96

19.98

Avg. WNY

Blend2

16.00

16.85

23.92

20.62

USDA All-Milk Price3

18.24

18.53

25.56

20.45

 F=forecast. Note that normally the Boston Blend is higher than the WNY blend, but the forecasts have diverged, with Agri-Mark being more bearish than Upstate Niagara recently.

  • February U.S. milk production increased 1.0% from February 2022. The national dairy herd increased, as did productivity per cow. 
  • On a state-by-state basis, in February, there were Y-O-Y increases in production in some major producing states, including, Idaho (3.4%), Michigan (3.1%), Texas (5.5%) and Wisconsin (0.3%). Notably, California (-0.9%), and New Mexico (-4.2%) showed declines. In the Northeast, New York had an increase of 2.9% Pennsylvania (-0.9%) and Vermont (-1.0%) showed decreases.4   
  • Milk prices have declined considerably from their highs in 2022. Boston Blend price averaged $19.70 in March, down substantially from the peak of $26.36 in July 2022. Prices are expected to range from $19-21 for the rest of 2023, and average $19.98 for the year. 
  • Input costs have risen, tightening margins for dairy producers. Labor, feed and other costs have risen significantly over the last 2 years.
 

1  Agri-Mark Price Forecast
2 Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
3 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)
4 USDA NASS Milk Production Report

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