Knowledge Exchange

Ag Economy

Dairy

Avg. Price per Cwt.

2018

2019

2020 F

2021 F

Boston Blend Price1

16.09

18.12

17.08

17.84

Avg. WNY Blend2

15.06

17.10

16.11

15.62

 F=forecast

  • Milk price forecasts for 2021 from cooperatives have diverged, with some projecting a slight increase, while others suggest a decrease.
  • 2020 Boston Blend pricing began the year at $18.78/cwt. but declined to $13.47 in May. It recovered to $18.27 in November, and came in at $17.08 for the year’s average.
  • The USDA all-milk price forecast for 2021 is $16.60/cwt.3
  • U.S. Milk production increased by 3.0% year-over-year in November 2020. Both the national herd as well as milk-per-cow increased.
  • On a state-by-state basis, in November, there were gains in production in California (2.6%), Idaho (2.0%), Michigan (3.6%), New York (2.1%), Texas (9.8%), and Wisconsin (2.7%) while other states showed decreases including Vermont (-3.3%), Arizona (-2.1%), and Florida (-4.3%).
  • National cow numbers increased 0.7% year-over-year (+62,000 head). New York cow numbers were flat at 626,000.4
  • Total U.S. dairy exports for 2020 through November were valued at $6.06B, a 10% y-o-y increase and a new record. Overall product volume exported increased 13%, y-o-y, largely due to a significant increase in exports to Southeast Asia.5

1  Agri-Mark Price Forecast
2 Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
3 USDA WASDE, December 2020
4 USDA/NASS Milk Production Report
5 U.S. Dairy Export Council