Dairy
|
Avg. Price per Cwt. |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 F |
|
Boston Blend Price1 |
18.12 |
17.10 |
17.85 |
25.47 |
|
Avg. WNY Blend2 |
17.10 |
16.07 |
16.86 |
24.68 |
|
USDA All-Milk Price |
18.70 |
18.24 |
18.69 |
25.80 |
F=forecast
- 2021 Annual U.S. milk production increased 1.3% from 2020. The national dairy herd increased by 56,000 head to 9.45 million cows. Per-cow productivity rose by 0.7% to 23,948 lbs per cow.
- On a state-by-state basis, in 2021, there were gains in production in some major producing states, including California (+1.3%), Idaho (1.1%), Minnesota (3.7%), Texas (5.0%), and Wisconsin (3.1%). In the Northeast, New York saw a gain of 1.6%, while others saw decreases, including Connecticut (-0.9%), Massachusetts (-1.5%), Maine (-3.5%), New Hampshire (-4.2%), and Vermont (-1.4%).3
- U.S. dairy exports continued their growth trajectory in 2021, increasing 10% by volume and 18% by value over 2020. Total value exported reached $7.8B, surpassing the previous record set in 2014.4
- USDA ERS forecasts flat-to-declining dairy exports in 2022 due to high U.S. milk prices.5
- The increases seen in mailbox milk prices over the last few months have been remarkable. Forecasts suggest that milk prices will remain in the $25’s through the end of the year, supporting higher-than-average profitability for dairy producers. While input costs have risen along with milk prices, notably feed, labor, fuel, and fertilizer, margins are projected to remain strong. DMC income-over-feed cost margins are forecast to average $12.07 in 2022, suggesting no payout from that program this year.
- Long-term futures foresee some softening in milk prices in 2023, bringing the average milk price next year down by about $2 to $23.38 for the Boston Blend.
- The NY Farmworker Wage Board voted to recommend phasing down the current 60-hour overtime threshold to 40 hours over a 10-year period. A proposed tax credit for farmers who pay overtime has been included in the 2022 state budget which may help mitigate the impact of the new threshold.
1 Agri-Mark Price Forecast
2 Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
3 USDA NASS Milk Production Report
4 US Dairy Export Council
5 USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, December 2021
