Knowledge Exchange

Ag Economy

Dairy

Avg. Price per Cwt.

2018

2019

2020

2021 F

Boston Blend Price1

16.09

18.12

17.10

17.80

Avg. WNY Blend2

15.06

17.10

16.07

17.06

 F=forecast

  • The USDA all-milk price forecast for 2021 is $18.85/cwt., and $18.75 for 2022.3
  • U.S. Milk production grew slowly for the first quarter of 2021, but then picked up the pace, increasing 3.5% in April and 4.6% in May, y-o-y.
  • National cow numbers increased by 1.5% in May, y-o-y (+145,000 head). NY added 2,000 head.
  • On a state-by-state basis, in May, there were significant gains in production in major producing states, including California (+5.0%), Idaho (2.7%), Michigan (5.1%), New York (4.2%), Pennsylvania (1.8%), Texas (10.8%), Wisconsin (5.6%), and Vermont (1.8%).4
  • Despite ongoing shipping bottlenecks, U.S. dairy export volume hit a 2-year high in May. On a solids basis, export volume was 18% higher, while value increased by 8%, compared to May 2020. Sales to China continue to grow, while exports to Mexico are lower, y-o-y.
  • While milk prices continue at reasonably strong levels by historical standards, increased feed and other input costs have squeezed margins for dairy producers. Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) income-over-feed-cost margins are expected to range from $6.13 to $8.54/cwt for the remainder of the year. Many producers who bought coverage at the $9.50/cwt. level are likely to receive payments in several months.

1  Agri-Mark Price Forecast
2 Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
3 USDA WASDE, June 2021
4 USDA/NASS Milk Production Report