Dairy Industry Snapshot

Market Overview

• The national milk cow herd came in larger than last year’s November numbers. The national milk cow herd was at 9.570 million head, above the November 2024 figure of 9.359 million head. Milk per cow was up slightly from the prior year, and overall milk production was up 4.5% from November 2024.

• New York saw an increase in cow numbers from this time last year (+19,000 head to 649,000 head), and production per cow ticked up, resulting in an increase in milk production of 3.2%. Nationally, most states showed increases. California (up significantly at +10.4%), Idaho (+5.6%), Texas (+4.9%), Vermont (+2.0%) and Wisconsin (+1.8%), showed gains, while New Mexico (-2.8%) and Pennsylvania (-1.1%) showed declines.

• Feed and fuel costs have declined over the last year, but other input costs have risen, most notably labor. Milk prices have declined over the course of 2025, and are projected to average $2.50-3.00 lower in 2026. Income-over-feed cost calculations, such as the DMC margin, are projected to range from $7.09-9.51/cwt. in 2026, with the low point in February.

• Dairy farm earnings will be supported somewhat by higher calf and cull-cow income, but sharply lower milk prices in 2026 will strain the finances of many producers.

• A wet spring and dry weather from mid-season on led to reduced harvest and quality of 2025 hay and corn silage in many parts of the Northeast, which may lead to greater purchases of feed to supplement the 2025 harvest. 

¹ Agri-Mark Price Forecast
² Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
³ USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)