Cash Field Crop
Wet weather both locally and nationally, has left millions of acres unplanted and many acres in fair to poor condition. That said, there is still plenty of growing season left, and weather from here on out will have a major impact on crop yields and quality.
- In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), corn planted area (both planted and yet to be planted) is projected at 89.8 million acres, a 1% increase over last year, but sharply below earlier estimates of 92.8 million acres, due to unfavorable weather. Yield per harvested acre is forecast at 166 bushels, 6% below last year. As of June 30, just 56% of the nation’s corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent,” compared to 76% last year.1 Late-planted corn and soybeans generally have lower yields, meaning the national average crop yield will be below-trend.
- In New York, as of June 30, 75% of the corn crop was planted compared to 94% last year, and only 55% was emerged, compared to 84% last year. Only 66% of the soybean crop was planted compared to 96% last year. Wet weather continued to delay field work and hay harvesting.
- Prevented planting claims are expected to top $1 billion nationally, but corn silage has been approved as an acceptable cover crop for prevented planting acreage in many states, including New York, which is a positive development.
- A CoBank Knowledge Exchange report, Ethanol Outlook Weak Amid Sluggish Demand, found that ethanol producer margins will remain weak for 2019. Plant capacity has increased following several years of positive margins. This, coupled with flat demand has weakened margins. 2019 Ethanol production is forecast to increase 1% over last year.
- Corn exports are expected to decline by 2% due to trade disputes and ample world supplies.
- In addition to trade disputes, the impact of African Swine Fever in China will reduce potential export demand for feed grains and oilseeds.
- USDA forecasts corn prices for the 2019/20 market year, at $3.80 (2018/19: $3.60), and soybeans at $8.25 (2018/19: $8.50).
1 USDA / NASS
