February 7, 2023

Ag Economy

National Economy Snapshot

The National Economy

The U.S. economy proved to be remarkably resilient in many ways in 2022. Economists estimate that real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth will come in at 1.9% for the year, exceeding prior expectations.1

Persistent high inflation has been challenging for businesses and consumers alike. In an effort to slow the economy and bring price stability, the Federal Reserve raised rates 7 times over the course of the year, bringing the upper limit of the Federal Funds rate from 0.25% at the beginning of the year (where it had been for 24 months) to 4.50% at the end of December. Nonetheless, GDP growth remained positive for the year, and unemployment remained remarkably low, coming in at 3.5% in December. This may influence the Fed to continue to raise interest rates if inflation does not subside in 2023. 

The U.S. economy is forecast to slow and possibly tilt into recession, with projections suggesting that real GDP growth will come in between -0.7 to +0.5% in 2023.

Net Farm Income Projection

Net Farm Income Projection Bar Chart

Source: USDA ERS & Farm Credit East Estimates. Does not include forest products or commercial fishing. 

1 The Conference Board, December 14, 2022

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