Dairy Industry Snapshot

HPAI does remain a concern, but the risk to the Northeast has waned in recent weeks and months. In the past 30 days only 1 new confirmed case has been documented in cattle, in a herd in Arizona.

The national milk cow herd came in slightly larger than last year’s May numbers. The national milk cow herd was at 9.445 million head, above the May 2024 figure of 9.331 million head. Milk per cow was up slightly from the prior year, and overall milk production was up 1.6% from May 2024.
New York saw an increase in cow numbers from this time last year (+8,000 head to 638,000 head), and production per cow was flat, resulting in an increase in milk production of 1.3%. Nationally, most states showed increases. Idaho (+6.0%), New Mexico (+0.2%), Texas (+8.9%), and Vermont (+0.5%), showed gains, while California (-1.8%), and Wisconsin (-0.1%) showed declines. Pennsylvania was flat, year-over-year.
Feed and fuel costs have declined over the last year, but other input costs have risen. Meanwhile, milk prices have started to decline. Income-over-feed cost calculations, such as the DMC margin, are projected to range from $13.85-10.42/cwt. in 2025, with the low point in April.
There is concern over forage and silage quality and quantity due to the wet spring conditions. The first cutting for hay was generally of poor quality.

¹ Agri-Mark Price Forecast
² Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
³ USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)

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